Wide Receiver

Happy [day after] schedule release day everyone!  If you read my comment on my schedule post you will notice I want to do an analysis of the games.  Just hold your horses, we will get to it, probably the start of next week.  But we are in the middle of possibilities for the draft and today we are talking about Wide Receivers.

Wide receiver, you may be saying to yourself, is not an issue.  We already have Wayne (a clear cut number one wide receiver in the NFL), Garcon (I guess he'll have to do, read "What's the deal with our offense"), Austin Collie (an absolutely incredible slot receiver, obviously when healthy), and our fourth receiver is Anthony Gonzalez (a former number one pick, who also, when healthy can put up solid numbers for a WR).  So you may be asking, why would we do this?  Well if you read the section on wide receivers in the "Draft Needs" article it pretty much states that what ever happens with Wayne will dictate what happens at this pick.  Obviously the lock out doesn't give the Colts much clarity, but Wayne is coming to the end of his contract (and has wanted a new one for a while now) but it is not usually smart to give a blockbuster contract to a 32, soon to be 33, year old receiver.  And if we lose Wayne, we really have no number one, so receiver could be a very possible first round pick.

I've said earlier I hope we go with an offensive lineman, and just find a way to keep Wayne around, but I'm not sure if sides will be able to come to a deal.  That being said, here are some options.

First of all, A.J. Green out of Georia and Julio Jones of Alabama are great options, but will most likely be off the board when the Colts select.  The Colts may trade up, but that is usually out of their character.

Three first or second (if they fall far enough) could be:

5. Jerrel Jernigan
School: Troy Height: 5'9" Weight: 190 lbs Class: Senior

Size here is one thing that concerns me.  Yet he has solid hands and speed.  He is shifty after the catch, and has good lateral agility and balance to elude defenders.  Some say he may struggle with a complex playbook (like ours).  Yet however he has good intangibles and is an athlete for sure. Seems like he has some attributes that the Colts like, and others that are not so favorable.

4. Torrey Smith
School: Maryland Height: 6'1" Weight: 204 lbs Class: Junior


In one of the mock drafts I follow, the second round pick has Torrey going to the Colts.  Torrey is a good blend of size and speed.  Has reliable hands (which seems to be something the Colts are concerned with in their prospects).  Route running is an issue for this guy, however he has great after the catch ability.  CBSSports says this guy's ability is only scratching the surface.  CBS compares his ability to Reggie Wayne, and the purpose of this pick would be to replace Wayne.


3. Randall Cobb
School: Kentucky Height: 5'11" Weight: 190 lbs Class: Junior

Cobb has soft natural hands, and is quick of the line of scrimmage.  Runs excellent and well disciplined routes.  He is smaller, but is a hard worker, which is something the Colts love!  This guy sounds like a Colt being dedicated on and off the field to football and excellence.  I would love to see someone like him come onto the roster.  The only concern I have is his frame.  Will size be an issue? With that I'm reminded that Wayne is only 6'0" and 198 lbs.  Cobb could be a solid pick up as a receiver in round two if still available.  He may not have some of the raw talent as other players further down on the list do, but he seems like a good option.


2. Titus Young
School: Boise St Height: 5'11" Weight: 174 Class: Senior

Young has the ability to stretch the field, at Boise he averaged more than 15 yards per reception.  He is quick, and small, which is basically what we have on our team.  Some of his weakness are dropping catchable passes.  He stretches the field very well, but I think Pierre is already our "go-route-runner."  I would be surprised to someone that is not more well rounded be selected here.


1. Jon Baldwin
School: Pittsburgh Height: 6'5" Weight: 230 lbs Class: Junior

Baldwin is the first receiver on draft countdown selected after the Colt's first pick at 22.  Baldwin is quick and lanky, giving him a good target uptop.  It says on CBSSports that he drops a lot of catchable passes in times of need (I don't like that, but all our greats have had that problem, Wayne, Clark, etc.)  Some scouts have question about his character and maturity.  Many signs simply point to this guy not being worthy of a first (or second) round pick for the Colts.

Conclusion

The top prospects on this list (behind Green and Jones) don't excite me too much, but I really like Torrey Smith and Randall Cobb.  Both seem like Colts, and have attributes that would make them pure bred Colts.  The issue of course is what happens with Wayne.  If we draft one of these guys now, they really have no place on our team, unless they beat out Garcon for the right side wide out.  I think Collie is pretty well set in the slot, and Wayne is cemented into the left wide out.  If Wayne is gone, we could see one of these guys step in.  Keep in mind Gonzalez was drafted to replace Harrison, and ultimately lost out on the right side to Garcon, and it seems as though Polian is not a huge fan of Gonzo (I love the guy).

All this said, depending on how ownership feels about the WR position going forward, and the future of some (Wayne [contract], Gonzo [contract], Collie [health], Garcon [productivity]) of our current guys will dictate what happens here in rounds one or two.

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What's the Deal with the Offense

In recent years I have noticed that our offense has been not running quite as effectively as it had in years past.  Those years where Peyton would set records were absolutely incredible years to be a Colts fan.  In recent seasons, this one, and two or three years prior to this our offense has taken somewhat of a step back.  It was much more noticeable this season with the injuries, but in recent years the offense has not been that "Well oiled machine" we Colts fans grew accustomed to.


Whats the problem?


I think its personnel, and personally this is why I think Manning is the greatest.  


In my previous post I incorporated the regular season records from the most recent decade, and it marked the team's consistency.  In the last 13 seasons, NFL team rosters have turned over, and new and improved players have come aboard.  13 seasons ago, and all the way up until 2009, the Colts number one receiver was Marvin Harrison.  In 1996 Harrison was drafted 19th overall by the Indianapolis Colts.  Harrison was the Colts number one receiver for multiple years.  In 2001 the team selected Reggie Wayne as the next receiver to lead the team.  But for multiple seasons Wayne and Harrison ran routes on either side of the field, making it a nightmare for defenses.  In 2003 the Colts signed Brandon Stokley and drafted Dallas Clark.  Also don't forget Edgerrin James was in there.  With those five weapons, and arguably the best quarterback in the league, there is no doubt why the team's offense was, at times, unstoppable.

If you notice, in 1998, Manning's rookie season, which is when the team began its run of dominance, the receiving corps of many teams were very different.  The Colts have consistently drafted in the 20's and 30's of the first round, and therefore bringing their chances of hitting on a home-run rookie lower and lower.

In 2009 I felt that the pieces had fallen into place.  The Colts finally had the slot reciever that they had been missing in Stokley with Austin Collie.  Dallas Clark was putting up numbers that the tight end position had never seen.  And Pierre Garcon stepped in for former first round pick Anthony Gonzalez to fill the shoes of Marvin Harrison.


Though injuries took away players like Clark, Collie, Gonzalez, and Addai this season, I still think the biggest hurdle for our offense is Pierre Garcon.


Had these injuries set in and the man to the right of Manning was Harrison (obviously in his prime) the season would have been much different.  But with the Colts consistency, they have not been able to draft very high in early rounds, so not only has this hurt the skill positions, but also the offensive line, and the running game, etc.  Like I said Harrison was the Colts first round pick, Garcon? He was selected in the 6th round.

His hands are not as solid as Marvin's.  He also has been known to be, "Not on the same page as Manning" on multiple occasions this season.  And to my knowledge, he is not as dedicated of a worker.  Now maybe Gonzalez stays healthy in 2009 Garcon never gains that position, but the reality is that we use him, almost exclusively, to run a clear out route by just sending him deep.  He is incredibly fast.  The first round selection to replace Harrison, Gonzalez, has not been able to stay on the field.


Pierre is skilled, but his deficiencies, especially in catching the ball, has really hurt the Colts in the past two season.  I just remember, sitting on my couch, watching Super Bowl XLIV and seeing that ball hit Garcon right in between the 8 and the 5 and then fall to the ground.  It was the turning point, and the onside kick over shadowed it, but his drops have been something that we didn't see much out of Harrison.


I hope his hands don't come back to bite the Colts, but you never can tell with this guy.  Sometimes you get some of the most spectacular catches, and other times you get the drop.

Hey...I've Seen This Before!

C'mon Colts. I mean, I know you were having trouble following up the Super Bowl win, but don't recycle material. The Colts losing in the playoffs? Seen it. One and done seems to be a growing trend for the Colts. Sometimes the breaks are bad, but this time, it was the other team who had the injury problem. LaDanian Tomlinson went down with a knee injury. Phillip Rivers was hurt due to, well, sucking. He wasn't even touched, and it's FieldTurf. Of course, this injury is a benefit. Phillip Rivers is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. We know that Antonio Gates was hurt, and Lorenzo Neal missed the game. The Colts had everyone not on injured reserve in this game. It is amazing that they lost to such an undermanned team. It shows motivation. Last year, the Colts had no motivation. They were just a normal team. Guess what. They won it all. In 2005, they could have played for the Dungy family. They lost to a Steelers team that was just not as talented. The Colts don't respond well to motivation. I know it's weird, but it's true. Next year, the Colts can hope for NOTHING. They don't need any trouble with the coaches. They don't need high expectations. They need NOTHING. However, there are more outrageous reasons why the Colts lost. Little patterns I have noticed that are a coincidence.

The Year After

Last year, the Colts were coming off of a disappointing year where they were the number one seed in the AFC. They won it all the next year. Eh. That's just once. Or is it. When the Colts lost even when they had home field advantage, the Steelers beat them on their amazing run to the Super Bowl. The year before, they went 15-1 in Ben Roethlisberger's first year. This is a trend that has been going on for a while. The Patriots had the best record in the AFC in 2003, and they won the championship in 2004. However, the Patriots did win the championship in 2003, which is a snag in the pattern. In recent history, this seems to be more than a coincidence. The Chargers were 14-2 last year, and maybe they are on a mission. If the Chargers would somehow win it all, this would have to be mentioned in the main stream media. 4 times in 5 years? That would be too much to ignore.

Football Gods

I don't know who the football gods are, but they must have decided that one was enough for the Colts. I know every team has injuries and blah, blah, blah, but the Colts were without Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Tony Ugoh, Ryan Diem, Robert Mathis, Raheem Brock, Dwight Freeney, Rob Morris, Tyjuan Hagler, Freddie Keiaho, Antoine Bethea, Tim Jennings, Dante Hughes, and Bob Sanders at some point in the year. I would like to see the Patriots win a game without Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, Ben Watson, Matt Light, Logan Mankins, Richard Seymour, Michael Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, and Vince Wilfork for a road game. That's what the Colts had to deal with against the Chargers. Sure, it didn't mean anything in the playoffs, but what about momentum. You can't continue to build momentum when everyone is missing games. This showed in the playoffs. The Chargers did not have very many injuries until the playoffs. They had the momentum. The football gods decided that the regular season wasn't enough. They needed for Joseph Addai, Kenton Keith, Jake Scott, Reggie Wayne, and Bob Sanders to get banged up. The football gods show no mercy.

DO NOT REST THE STARTERS!

This may not be a reason why they lost, but it is a reason why they didn't win. Let me elaborate. The Giants and Chargers are not the best teams in the league, but they are on a roll and in their conference championships. You know why. They played their starters. Eli Manning is on fire, and the Chargers defense is unstoppable. They didn't rest their starters. This is a simple reason why the Chargers dominated the Colts yesterday.

I have nothing left to say but, Super Bowl XLIII here we come!

He's Back!!!

For most of the Colts' season, they have been out of the national media. They haven't been chasing an undefeated season. They haven't had a player with an outburst or controversy. Yesterday, that changed with some great news about Marvin Harrison.

Marvin Harrison has been a Colt since 1996 and before this year, had only missed 3 games all year long. Against the Broncos, the usually consistent Harrison went down with a bruised knee on a freak accident. When Joseph Addai ran to the right, he was tackled right next to Harrison, who was blocking for the second-year running back. When Addai went down, he landed on Harrison's knee. After seeing the highlights, the outlook was not good. He went down awkwardly and looked to be in a lot of pain. However, the bruised knee was much better than what most would have thought. Everyone would have assumed that a bruise couldn't keep Harrison out too long, but that was not the case.

Harrison sat out the next game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After the bye week, Harrison made an appearance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It appeared that his knee injury was gone, but something must have gone wrong. Nine weeks went by. There was speculation that the injury was much worse, and he may never put on a Colts uniform again. Colts fans were ready to move on with this season. Now, after two days of full practices, Marvin is ready to play in the regular season finale against the Tennessee Titans.

Marvin Harrison is the greatest receiver in Colts history. He is a definite first ballot Hall of Famer. He may not make the biggest impact on the field, but the Colts need another target. With Harrison back for the playoffs, Peyton Manning now has his favorite receiver back in time to play the stingy defense they are bound to face in the AFC Divisional Round. They are either going to play San Diego, Pittsburgh, or Jacksonville. For those teams, they need everyone they can get.

With Marvin in the game, the Colts do not have to use Dallas Clark in the slot like they did last year in the playoffs and for most of this year. With Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, and Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark will now be covered mainly by linebackers. As he has proved time and time again, linebackers can't cut it against him. Work in Ben Utecht, Bryan Fletcher, and Joseph Addai in the passing game, and they are right up there with the Patriots.

What will this mean in the playoffs? This changes everything for the Colts offense and the opponent's defense. The Colts now have three wide receivers that Peyton has a strong connection with. As he proved in the San Diego game, backup receivers do not work well with Peyton. Craphonso Thorpe and Devin Aromashodu are not going to cut it with number 18. Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning are the greatest QB-WR duo in the history of the NFL. Harrison coming back changes the entire playoff landscape.