Luck of the Draft

Today Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck decided to return to school instead of declaring for the NFL draft.  Had Luck come out it seemed as if he would be the consensus number one pick.  That pick belongs to the Carolina Panthers this year.  A team missing out on a quarterback could make all the difference, not only for the team, but for the player as well.  And the opposite is equally correct, a team landing the perfect pick could change the fortune of a franchise for a decade.


Take for example Matt Leinart from USC.  In 2005, after coming off a Heisman winning season, Leinart decided to stay in college instead of coming out and he would have been the number one pick.  Instead the San Francisco 49ers chose Alex Smith of Utah.  The following year Leinart slipped to 10th and was the 2nd quarterback that was taken.  Had Leinart come out the previous year then Smith wouldn't have been the number one pick, and therefore we don't know what would have happened to current Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers was the second quarterback taken in that draft, if Leinart was one, and Smith was two, then where would Rodgers be?  Who knows what would have happened to Leinart who never panned out in Arizona and is now a backup to Matt Shaub in Houston.  Leinart's decision affected the 49ers, the Cardinals, and the Packers. One decision affected the outcome of 3 (or even more) teams.

Lets look at another example, Washington quarterback Jake Locker looked like the number one pick last year, and he decided to stay in college.  That paved the way for Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford, who also stayed in for another year and was hurt during his senior season, to be drafted by the St. Louis Rams as the number one pick.  Bradford beat Peyton Manning's rookie completion record, and almost led the Rams to a playoff appearance.


It looks like Bradford made the right decision, and Leinart made the wrong one.  It looks like the Rams have a franchise quarterback, and the 49ers have another major decision to make.


The Quarterback is the face of the franchise and the leader of the team, in today's NFL you need a solid quarterback to lead your squad.  These decisions affect franchises and lives of people.  If Carolina drafted Luck they could be the Indianapolis Colts, or they could become the San Francisco 49ers.  Andrew Luck could be the next Peyton Manning, or the next Alex Smith.  You never know.


Luck's decision got me thinking about Peyton Manning.  In 1997 Manning decided to return to college.  Had Manning come out, he would have been a New York Jet.  The following season, when Manning entered the NFL it was the Indianapolis Colts who owned the number one pick, and they took Peyton.  The Jets lost out on their chance.  One decision, two franchises directly affected.  
Since Manning has been drafted the record by the respective teams are:


Colts 141-67
Jets 111-97


This is truly the Colts golden era, all the records are held by recent players, all because of that number one overall pick in 1998.


It's either ironic, or a coincidence that the Jets are the team that is coming into town this week.  There are plenty of things that could have taken place in between now and then, but lets just imagine the script was flipped. 


The Indianapolis Colts were traveling to the New Meadow lands stadium this weekend to face the third seeded Jets.  Peyton Manning is wearing a green and white number 18, and the Colts young quarterback Mark Sanchez is sporting the number six in blue and white.  Last year the Colts hired a bold, audacious young coach by the name of Rex Ryan, and the Jets are going into a similar situation after recently losing coach Herman Edwards to retirement with their second year head coach, Jim Caldwell.


Yeah, I know its weird to think about, trust me I wanted to stop writing it.  Plenty of things can happen, but look at what one decision did to an NFL franchise.  I mean had Peyton not come to Indy 


-They probably would not be making their record 9th consecutive playoff appearance.
-They probably would not have Jim Caldwell as their head coach.  
-They probably would not be an offensive minded team.  


Manning coming to Indy has influence countless decisions by the Colts, and where a player lands in the draft affects the decisions of a franchise for years after that.  You build around the quarterback.


There are a lot of similarities in this situation.  Both Luck and Manning were thought to be the number one player to come out of the draft.  Both quarterback's led their college team to success.  Both quarterbacks stayed in college for another season.  Luck can only hope that the deja vu doesn't stop there, but continues on as he dives into an NFL career.


We could go on creating would have been scenarios, and look at who was taken in the draft in place of who, but it comes down to the on the field performance with whatever players are dealt to you.  All I know is that 13 years ago a young quarterback decided to stay in college, leaving the Jets without their possible franchise quarterback, and it was the greatest decision ever in Indianapolis Colts history.  Carolina looks like its missing out this season, and next season some poor NFL franchise could quite possibly be receiving the best Luck they could have asked for.